DNA ANALYSIS: Mathematics of voting in 8 phases in West Bengal elections, understand who will benefit from it?
New Delhi: Today, we will first analyze the pure home politics of India and this politics is about elections. The Election Commission has introduced the dates of meeting elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Union Territory of Puducherry and the outcomes of all these elections will come collectively on 2 May and our nation is absolutely ready for it.
Pure Desi Politics of India
India is commonly known as a rustic of festivals as a result of, greater than a thousand festivals are celebrated right here yearly. That is, day-after-day the individuals of India have a good time three festivals and the election can also be one of these. In India, a median of 5 to 7 meeting elections are held yearly. That is, each 4 months, the individuals of our nation have a good time their election pageant by giving their vote to kind a authorities in their states and that’s the reason we name it pure Indian politics as a result of, this politics is expounded to elections. Today, the Election Commission has introduced the dates of election in the states, West Bengal is crucial one, as a result of at the moment there may be Mamata Banerjee’s authorities and BJP is giving them a straight combat. What will be the brand new turning level in the nation’s politics with this direct competitors.
Also right now, we will additionally reply your query, which you’re eagerly ready for and that is the query of who is profitable in these states. So right now we ready the reply for this query for you. But earlier than telling about this, we offer you details about the election datesheet of these states.
-Westing of 294 seats in West Bengal will be held in eight phases. The first section will be held on 27 March, the second section on 1 April, then 6 April, 10 April, 17 April, 22 April, 26 April and the final section voting on 29 April.
Voting will be accomplished in three phases on 126 Assam seats. The first section will happen on 27 March, the second on 1 April and the final section on 6 April.
Voting will be held on April 6 in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Union Territory of Puducherry and the outcomes of all these elections will come on May 2.
If we add the overall inhabitants of these 4 states and union territory of Puducherry, then this quantity is about 25 crores. That is, about 19 % of the overall inhabitants of the nation lives in these states and the overall quantity of voters right here is greater than 18 crores.
These embody TMC authorities in West Bengal and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
There is a BJP authorities in Assam and the Chief Minister is Sarbananda Sonowal.
-The Congress was in Puducherry, however after the federal government got here to a minority, President’s rule has been imposed there.
AIADMK is presently in Tamil Nadu.
And there’s a authorities of the Left in Kerala.
These states are Virgin Islands for BJP
So that is the present state of these states. The level to notice right here is that in the 2016 meeting elections, BJP received 3 or much less seats in 4 of these 5 states and union territory. Among these, BJP was decreased to zero in Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. You may also name these states Virgin Islands for BJP, the place it has nothing to lose.
If BJP wins in these states, then it will broaden the social gathering in jap and southern India and these states will change into sport changers for it in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, as a result of these states have a complete of 116 Lok Sabha seats.
The most essential factor is that every one these states are non-Hindi talking and BJP known as the social gathering of Hindi belt. Now if she establishes her supremacy in these states, then it will carry two main modifications.
The first In India, the BJP will broaden in 4 instructions – North, South, East, West.
And Second The change is that together with nationwide politics, the roots of BJP will change into stronger in regional politics as nicely.
Another factor right here is that if the outcomes in these elections are in favor of the BJP, then the function of these states will change into essential in the overall elections of 2024.
Who is profitable these elections?
Today many individuals will even have the query that who is profitable in these elections? So right now we now have ready the reply for you too.
There is a direct contest between BJP and TMC in West Bengal. In the 2016 election, BJP had received solely three of the 294 seats in Bengal, however after three years, this image modified and in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP received 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats and its vote. The share was elevated to 40.64. This is simply 3 % lower than TMC’s vote. That is, BJP has reached very near TMC and that is the rationale that this time in West Bengal, there’s a direct competitors between Mamata Banerjee and BJP.
There is a BJP authorities in Assam for the time being and it’s competing with the Congress right here. That is, there’s a actual combat between these two events.
In Tamil Nadu, the equation is sort of difficult this time and Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi, the 2 main faces of politics there, usually are not current amongst us right now. Jayalalithaa handed away on 5 December 2016 and M Karunanidhi died after being unwell for a very long time in 2018.
This is the rationale that there isn’t a large face in the Tamil Nadu elections this time and the equations are fairly difficult. At current, there may be AIADMK authorities in the state and in the Lok Sabha elections it was defeated by DMK by a big margin. In such a scenario, there will be competitors between these two events. However, BJP may also open its account in Tamil Nadu this time and it could additionally get some seats.
In Kerala, the LDF is the federal government of the left and there will be a triangular contest. There will be a tricky competitors between LDF, UDF and BJP right here.
Mamta Banerjee on the pitch of Bengal
If we speak about West Bengal solely, then the elections of this state will additionally have an effect on nationwide politics and the largest cause for that is Mamta Banerjee.
Mamta Banerjee has been sitting on the pitch of Bengal for the final 10 years and is in energy and the opposition additionally has excessive hopes from them. You can say that the opposition nonetheless has one large wicket left in the shape of Mamta Banerjee, as a result of Mamata Banerjee’s politics is towards the BJP.
In such a scenario, if Mamata Banerjee loses in the election, the opposition will lose an enormous wicket in her kind. In such a scenario, the already weak opposition will not have many gamers left and its path will change into much more tough for the 2024 common election.
Since the BJP’s spectacular efficiency in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Opposition is realizing this and maybe that is the rationale why each the Congress and the Left are taking a delicate stand on Mamata Banerjee in this election and we really feel That it’s a nice power for him to take action. However, there may be additionally an essential level right here that Mamta Banerjee has sturdy roots in West Bengal and the group of TMC in rural areas remains to be thought-about highly effective. In such a scenario, the battle in West Bengal will not be simple for the BJP.
Modi magic check
At current, there’s a BJP-led NDA coalition authorities in 17 states of the nation and if the BJP wins in these 4 states, then this quantity will be 21. The outcomes of these elections will additionally determine whether or not the emphasis of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the nation has decreased or it’s growing quickly as a result of, through the second time period of the Modi authorities, many such large and historic choices have been taken, on which these states The opinion of the particular person has to this point seemed to be divided.
The largest instance of that is the Citizenship Amendment Act, which Mamata Banerjee has refused to implement in Bengal, and the BJP is elevating this challenge in elections as a result of, probably the most benefit of this legislation is to the Hindu households who got here from Bangladesh to West Bengal. Mila and Mamta Banerjee are understanding this very nicely. That is, there will be a check of Modi magic, in addition to this legislation will additionally check this election.
The outcomes will additional make clear public opinion on agricultural legislation
Apart from this, the outcomes of these elections will additionally determine what the individuals of these states assume on the problem of agricultural legislation. Till now the farmers’ motion has been confined to 1 or two states and the farmers of different states haven’t voted towards it. Therefore, in order for you, you possibly can say that the outcomes of this election will make public opinion on agriculture legislation extra clear.
Now you understand how this election is definitely between two ideologies too. This is a battle of nationalism vs liberalism. On one aspect there may be BJP and on the opposite aspect there are left events, Mamta Banerjee and Congress. In the election, 18 crore voters will choose one of these two ideologies and that is going to show crucial for the nation as a result of, by this, it will be determined which method India is shifting now and what’s the temper of our nation.
Mathematics of voting in 8 phases
A brand new political custom additionally started with the announcement of election dates and that is the custom. To query the Election Commission earlier than the election outcomes. Till now the leaders of our nation used to carry the Election Commission liable for this after the defeat in the elections and the digital voting machine was once an excellent excuse for them. But now this custom has modified and it has been modified by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Mamta Banerjee, in a press convention, alleged that the Election Commission has introduced the election dates in keeping with the BJP. He additionally opposed the choice to carry voting in eight phases.
After this press convention of Mamta Banerjee, the assaults on the Election Commission intensified all through the nation and inside just a few hours the problem began trending on Twitter.
Mamata Banerjee could also be questioning the intention of the Election Commission, however right now we additionally wish to inform you what will occur if elections are held in eight phases in the West? Understand it briefly
In 2016, elections had been held in Bengal in 6 phases, however in view of the hazards in the Naxalite affected areas, then one section was divided into two dates and thus the voting was accomplished in seven phases, however then Mamata Banerjee had somebody on the Election Commission Did not elevate the query and now they see the conspiracy of the BJP behind this.
Now we are able to shortly get you linked to West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry. attention-grabbing reality telling.
– Kerala has the best unemployment price amongst these states. This is 9 %. Apart from this, West Bengal has 3.9 per cent, Assam has 6.7 per cent and Tamil Nadu has 6.6 per cent unemployment price.
The whole quantity of Vidhan Sabha seats in these 4 states and Puducherry is 824 whereas the Lok Sabha seats are 116.
The whole inhabitants of West Bengal is round 10 crores and in phrases of most inhabitants, it’s fourth after Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar.
The cause for 12 murders in West Bengal in the yr 2019 was political. Apart from this, in Kerala too, there have been 4 murders in 2019 as a result of political causes and the essential factor right here is that this determine is the best in the final 6 years.
And in these states, West Bengal has the best quantity of youth in the age group of 15 to 24 years, this quantity is 17 lakh.